Commodities Back on the Grill
In commodity markets, prices do not always rise for the most obvious reasons. Of course, harvests, inventories and production matter. But above all, it is risk that moves the lines.
War, blocked straits, nervous investors and rapid repositioning: the cocktail is seriously disrupting the markets. As a result, we are seeing a broadly bullish trend across agriculture and energy, while metals are retreating.
Grains: Stirring Despite Full Silos
On the agricultural side, the rally may come as a surprise. Soybean, corn and wheat harvests remain largely abundant, yet prices are climbing. Nothing spectacular, but enough to signal that buyers are returning. Agricultural markets often live with this paradox: even in a well-supplied world, a little logistical or political uncertainty is enough to awaken capital flows. And when investors start looking for liquid assets, grains are rarely far down the list.
Oil: A Foggy Picture
On the energy front, geopolitical tensions are clearly playing their part. The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran is spilling across the Gulf, setting markets ablaze and clouding any attempt at medium- or long-term forecasting. Tomorrow is another day. As a result, the market is paying a little less attention to production figures… and a little more to the map of the world.
Gold and Silver: The Mood Thermometers
When tensions rise, precious metals react quickly. Gold stays true to its role as a safe haven in the early days of conflict, before stress takes over and investors begin selling. High interest rates, a strong dollar, a correction following the euphoric phase of 2025 — and suddenly the mood shifts. Price fluctuations are no longer driven by geopolitics, but once again by pure financial dynamics. Silver, naturally more volatile and strongly correlated to gold, is also declining. Its dual identity — precious metal on one side, industrial material on the other — amplifies the drop as industrial activity slows under the weight of war. The world may be obsessed with technology and electrification when everything is going well, but today priorities lie elsewhere and investment is slowing.
Industrial Metals
Base metals such as aluminium, nickel and copper are also moving higher, supported by the energy transition, but they remain heavily disrupted by the global economic slowdown. With the Middle East being a key producer, aluminium is directly impacted by the war due to its heavy dependence on energy costs. Cobalt, a geopolitical metal closely tied to Africa, remains relatively stable, trapped between supply shortages and fragile demand.
Ultimately, the lesson is simple: commodities follow the mood of the world. Lately, that mood has been rather gloomy, nervous and particularly unpredictable.